Harvest time
With harvest now only a month away in the south of this country, it is of interest to note that many of the major production fears from around the world appear to have eased, at least for the time being.
But with harvesting already underway in the US and south of Europe, markets could move into a highly reactive mode to weather and production data.
Most crops in this country appear to have very good potential so far, with the majority of crops remaining quite clean and having adequate density.
There are some problems, though, and coastal counties show a fair bit of Barley Yellow Dwarf Virus (BYDV), and there is a fair bit of take-all about.
At this point, wet is the main concern, as many big crops of cereals risk being knocked over by rain.
Elsewhere in Europe yield prospects have improved. The serious drought in eastern England earlier in the year appears to have faded and prospects there are now good for all crops, assuming adequate disease and weed control in the wetter season.
Further east, the cold winter certainly damaged crops in eastern EU border countries but recent moisture stress is thought to have been relieved.
But production will still be hit in many of these countries, such as Bulgaria and Poland.
Production will also be hit in Spain where the harvest has already begun. But the position is likely to have improved considerably in France and Germany, although harvesting is likely to be later than normal.
In Central Europe, production will be back on last year but it is now expected to be better than indicated a few months ago.
In north America, wheat harvesting has begun in the southern states with early yields higher than last year.
And in Canada, planting has been largely completed in good conditions, indicating the prospect of a good crop, given the high soil moisture reserves.
In Australia, there appears to be a swing out of wheat and into oilseed rape, but there are also moisture concerns for germination in western Australia.
All in all, any fears of a production collapse in 2012 appear to have faded, and higher than estimated yield levels could result in a degree of price pressure come harvest, especially for wheat, as corn is more competitive at the moment.
Meanwhile, the Boortmalt forward hedging price has been finalised at €193.34/tonne. A strong uptake of this new trading opportunity was reported.
The next window for hedging forward will be on 25 June.
Source: farmersjournal.ie